SYRE: System‑based support for analysis of accessibility changes at regional level

The Swedish Transport Administration (STA) analyses the consequences of changes in accessibility within the transportation system. These changes could include alterations to speed limits on road networks or major investments in roads and railways. The existing modelling tools used for analysing how accessibility changes impact specific locations and their regional surroundings over both short and long terms are limited. STA:s current tools struggle to handle interactions between and within municipalities and regions. Additionally, they lack a dynamic approach that distinguishes between short-term and long-term effects. STA:s regional models primarily rely on general statistical relationships between accessibility and various regional economic outcomes. However, this assumption implicitly suggests that changes in accessibility will have the same effects in large cities as in rural areas. This oversimplification is problematic because regional economic literature provides numerous examples showing that the impact of a specific action or investment can vary depending on the location where it is implemented. A common pattern observed is that improved accessibility, all else being equal, leads to increased centralization and concentration of economic activity in larger cities. Simultaneously, businesses in smaller towns may face competition from larger urban centres. Unfortunately, in the analyses, the transportation system tends to be treated separately from the places it aims to connect and foster favourable growth conditions for, the very essence of its main function. The purpose of this project is therefore to develop knowledge about and the ability to model and analyse how changes in accessibility impact regional economic development in different locations and regions over time. Specifically, the project aims to understand the dynamic effects of accessibility changes in various places. In the analysis, annual data from PIPOS Regionalanalys is used and examined. This data serves as input for a dynamic simulation model that considers feedback between different locations over a series of years. The model explores aspects such as business relocation due to economies of scale and migration resulting from changes in accessibility. For this application, the project is limited to analysing three case studies: Sundsvallsbron, Motalabron, and a geographical area in Sweden that has experienced significant improvements in accessibility during the period covered by PIPOS data. The area is identified using data-driven methods. The analysis of data and model simulations for these case studies can later be expanded to cover models for the entire country. The project’s results will contribute to the development of socio-economic analysis within the framework of total impact assessments.